Posts Tagged ‘Congress’

India’s First Digital Elections Evoke Strong Reactions Online

Friday, April 17th, 2009

The world’s biggest election is underway in India and, as India’s 714 million voters cast their ballots in the month-long elections, they are witness to a range of digital initiatives from political parties, civil society organizations, media houses and even corporates. It’s not surprising, then, that the Indian internet community is abuzz with discussions related to various aspects of the elections.

It’s not only a big election in terms of numbers, it’s a big election for India in terms of timing. Last November, the terrorist attack in Mumbai shook up India’s politically apathetic youngsters and brought them out into the streets. Since then, a series of digital civil society initiatives have sought to channel this newfound sense of civic engagement in the Indian youth into meaningful participation in the political process.

In the run up to the elections, online conversations in India have been charged with this civic consciousness. Transparency campaigns like No Criminals in Politics and Vote Report India and voter registration campaigns like Tata Tea’s Jaago Re have caught the imagination of urban India’s web-savvy youngsters, with their effective use of social media platforms like Facebook and YouTube.

Rashmi Bansal believed that, with the campaign, Tata Tea has taken corporate social responsibility further than most brands do. Rajesh Kumar wondered why only beverage companies do election themed social advertising. Indian Homemaker and Chavvi Sachdev shared their experiences with voter registration. Sanjukta did an interesting interview with Jaago Re campaign coordinator Jasmine Shah.

At the same time, the janus-faced Lead India/ Bleed India campaign by The Times of India has incited mixed reactions.

Anondan tore apart the Lead India print ad while Rajiv Dingra wondered about the rationale behind the Lead India/ Bleed India dichotomy. On Twitter, several users like Deepak and Kanika, found the Bleed India campaign “funny and creative”, while Sumant and Aadisht believed that Bleed India was “buzz gone wrong” and “badly done sarcasm”.

BJP leader Lal Krishna Advani’s Obama-style digital campaign consisting of a blog, a blogger outreach program, and an aggressive internet and mobile advertising element, has also evoked strong reactions online.

Most bloggers, including Sampad Swain, Mayank Dhingra and myself, have praised BJP’s campaign, but some, like blogger-turned columnist Sidin Vadukut have complained that it is an overkill.

The Congress Party’s Bharat Buland campaign, built around the Oscar-winning song Jai Ho (let there be victory) from Slumdog Millionaire, has attracted a lot of criticism from bloggers like Vinod Sharma, especially after the BJP released a parody titled Bhay Ho (let there be fear).

Aparna Ray has captured some of the reactions to the BJP and Congress campaigns in previous posts on Global Voices.

Several bloggers like Rajesh Jain (associated with Friends of BJP), Offstumped are aggressively campaigning for BJP. The #indiavotes09 Twitter feed is dominated by hardcore BJP supporters like @offstumped, @centerofright, and @deadpresident, with only @vimoh and @b50 standing up for Congress.

Beyond the campaigns, bloggers have been critical of BJP’s Hindutva agenda and the Congress party’s obsession with the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. Bhumika Ghimire has written about these critcisms in a previous Global Voices post.

The Indian internet community has also been abuzz with discussions on the controversy surrounding Varun Gandhi’s inflammatory anti-Muslim speech and subsequent imprisonment, the incidents of shoe-throwing against Congress politicians P Chidambambaram and Naveen Jindal and BJP leader L K Advani, and the election campaigns of writer Shashi Tharoor , danseuse Mallika Sarabhai and ABN AMRO India chief Meera Sanyal.

In the midst of this spirit of civic engagement, some people have become fixated on the misguided idea of “negative voting” under section 49(O). Basically, the idea is that voters should have the right to ask for a re-election by selecting a “none of the above” option, if none of the candidates are acceptable to them. A chain e-mail falsely claimed that such a rule already exists. Many bloggers, like Deva Prasad and Vimoh, strongly supported the idea and even called it a powerful agent of change. A Facebook group and an online petition promoting the idea are getting some traction.

In terms of individual sources, the Outlook India Election Blog is doing a great curation role by linking to important stories from elsewhere. Social networking community IndiPepal has blogs from several well-known analysts. Blogger Chakresh Mishra is doing a series of state-wise pre-poll predictions for the Indian elections. Blogger Manoj Kevalramani is traveling through 11 states in 45 days to get a first-hand impression of the mood on the ground during the election period. The Indian Muslims Blog is writing about the elections from a unique minority perspective. Jai Hind, Indian Election 2009, Indian Elections 2009, Indian Elections, Speak India and Youth Ki Awaaz are some other blogs dedicated to election coverage. BlogAdda and OneVote are doing a great job of aggregating these conversations.

A Roundup of Predictions for the 2009 Lok Sabha Elections in India

Sunday, April 12th, 2009

The month long general elections to the 15th Lok Sabha start from April 16, and there is wide speculation on which party, or coalition, will emerge the winner, when the results are announced on May 16th.

Here is a quick roundup of the pre-election predictions and the discussion around them in the Indian blogosphere.

According to the second Star-Nielsen poll, the Congress will win 155 seats (203 with UPA allies), while the BJP will win 147 seats (191 with NDA allies) (via TOI).

Arun Nehru at the Deccan Chronicle predicts that the Congress will win 157 seats (193 with UPA allies), compared to the 132 seats for the BJP (177 with NDA allies).

The Times of India predicts that the Congress will win 154 seats (198 with UPA allies), while the BJP will win 135 seats (176 with NDA allies).

According to The Week, the Congress will win 144 seats (198 with UPA allies), while the BJP will have to settle at 140 seats (186 with NDA allies).

India Today expects the UPA to win 196-205 seats, far ahead of the 172-181 seats for the NDA.

According to Reuters, the Congress with 139 seats will form the government, beating the BJP, which will win only 129 seats.

DNA predicts that the Congress-led UPA will win 184 seats, against the 177 seats for the BJP-led NDA.

Shreekant Sambrani at Business Standard predicts that BJP will emerge as the biggest party with 137 seats (184 seats with NDA allies), ahead of the Congress, which will win 119 seats (176 seats with UPA allies, including LJP/ RJD).

India TV also predicts that the BJP will emerge as the largest single party with 144 seats (187 seats with NDA allies), ahead of the Congress, which will win 133 seats (178 seats with UPA allies).

According to BJP’s own survey, conducted by G V L Narasimha Rao, the BJP will win 160 seats (217 with NDA allies) compared to 135 seats for the Congress (180 with UPA allies) (via TOI).

The numbers for the UPA have come down in recent predictions as analysts aren’t counting the numbers for Lalu Prasad’s RJD, Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP or Mulayam Singh’s SP as part of the alliance anymore.

Earlier, in March, the Star-Nielsen poll had predicted that Congress will win 144 seats (257 with UPA allies, including 47 for SP/ RJP/ LJP), compared to the 137 seats for the BJP (184 with NDA allies) (via Reuters).

The CNN-IBN poll had predicted that the Congress-led UPA will win 215-235 seats (including SP/ RJP/ LJP), compared to 165-185 seats for the BJP-led NDA (via Reuters).

In 2004, the UPA had won 234 seats (with 145 seats for the Congress) and the NDA had won 184 seats (with 138 seats for the BJP).

The Outlook Blog written by Sandeep Dougal, by the way, has emerged as my single most useful source of news and opinion on the Indian Lok Sabha elections. This is a great example of the value a traditional news organization can add by linking out to others.

Several Indian bloggers are also posting their own predictions.

Vijay at OffStumped, an overtly pro-BJP blog, predicts that NDA will win 184 seats compared to 108 for UPA.

Blogger Arvind Katoch predicts that UPA will win 230-240 seats where NDA can win 180-200 seats.

Promise of Reason is also doing a series of state-wise pre-poll predictions for the Indian elections.

Rajesh Jain, who is also a part of the Friends of BJP group, has also been sharing his assessment of how the elections might turn out and believes that we will see another election in two years.

It seems that the consensus opinion is that the Congress will emerge as the largest party with 150-160 seats, while the BJP will win 130-140 seats. In any case, fewer parties will ally with the BJP, and it will need 175+ seats to have a stab at building a majority coalition, so we can safely assume that the Congress will be a part of the coalition government. Most observers are predicting that a Congress-led UPA-Left coalition will form the government.